William Katz: Urgent Agenda
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THURSDAY, AUGUST 21, 2008
WAITING FOR BARACK
Posted at 9:24 p.m. ET
Senator Obama announced today that...he has decided. I think I heard a drumroll.
So whoever the vice presidential choice is, at least the presidential choice knows. Now, the second guy, or woman, is supposed to campaign with the sainted one on Saturday, so Barack better inform the choice pretty soon.
The only hint he gave today is his description of what he wants in a vice president:
Obama said he wanted somebody who is ‘prepared to be president’ and who will be ‘a partner with me in strengthening this economy for the middle class and working families.’
He said he was looking for not just a partner but a sparring partner. ‘I want somebody who’s independent, somebody who can push against my preconceived notions and challenge me so we have got a robust debate in the White House.’
Yeah, right. I'll bet a president really wants a sparring partner. I don't know of a single case where a presidential candidate has put out the order, "Get me someone who'll disagree."
If Barack wants a sparring partner, that rules out Evan Bayh, a nice guy but a marshmallow. It probably rules out Tim Kaine of Virginia, who is not known as "Mr. Policy." It probably rules in Joe Biden, who's volatile enough and egotistical enough to disagree with a man who's both a president and a messiah.
And it sure rules in Ms. Hillary, who'll give Obama the kind of robust debate only a masochist could hope for.
I suspect the announcement will come tomorrow. I also suspect we'll hear it and go back to sleep, along with the rest of the country.
August 21, 2008. Permalink 
AWFUL
Posted at 7:41 p.m. ET
The attempt to paint John McCain as a racist has already begun. This is absolutely awful:
LAS VEGAS—A Nevada congresswoman and surrogate for Barack Obama accused John McCain's campaign on Thursday of using veiled language to paint the Democratic presidential candidate as an "uppity black man."
On a conference call with reporters, U.S. Rep. Shelley Berkley of Las Vegas said the Republican's attempts to portray his rival as out of touch with average Americans carried racial undertones.
"When I hear the word 'elitist' linked with Barack Obama, to me, that is a code word for 'uppity,'" Berkley said on a call organized by the Obama campaign to announce a new television ad. "I find it extremely offensive, and John McCain should know better. And until this election, he handled himself in a far more enlightened way. ... They're not using the word 'elitist' by accident, that's a code word for 'uppity black man.'"
And what does the Obama campaign say about this?
Berkley's analysis was not echoed by Obama's campaign.
"That is not a characterization the campaign agrees with," said Obama spokeswoman Kirsten Searer. "That is our only comment."
How about 1) dropping Berkley as a surrogate, 2) publicly apologizing to John McCain, and 3) putting out a public directive to all Obama soldiers to desist from language like that.
The Obama campaign's little slap on the wrist was completely inadequate. Expect to hear more ugly comments, and some pro forma "we don't agree" maneuvers from the Obama side.
August 21, 2008. Permalink
UPDATE AT 4:15 P.M.: A Fox News poll just released has Obama up three. The polls are in remarkable alignment, with a few outliers. We can reasonably assume that Obama has a small lead. But Obama generally polls better than he delivers, and his strength is in groups that traditionally have had turnout problems. Stress time for the Dems, but still heavy lifting for the GOP. Fact is, despite slippage, Obama is still ahead.
TRACKERS
Posted at 2:04 p.m. ET
Both trackers are now out for today. As reported earlier at SNIPPETS, Rasmussen has Obama up by two.
Gallup has Obama up by one.
Obama has yet to name his vice-presidential choice. I doubt if that will give him much of a boost. He could get a bump from his acceptance speech, but it's unlikely to be the kind of bump he'd hoped for. And please note that the GOP convention follows the Dem convention immediately. The Republicans will be on the attack as the Dem delegates are flying home, the elites in their environmentally sound private jets.
Very close, very close. This will be a bitter campaign.
August 21, 2008. Permalink
FOUR DAYS
Posted at 7:08 a.m. ET
Only four days remain until the Democrats meet. They're flying into Denver already, eager to get there. After all, Colorado is familiar turf. The ski slopes of Aspen at times serve as a second home to the party elite, which meets there whenever social schedules permit, and agonizes over the ecologically unsound ways of the American peasantry.
It could have been a much happier gathering. Democrats no doubt pictured themselves attending a harmonious, low-crab victory party, with many of them eager to serve in the administration of, check one, the first black or first female president. But a funny thing happened to Democrats on their way to the meeting. The American people spoke up. They reminded the party that voters have the final say, and that voters like occasionally to be consulted.
Barack Obama is slumping in the polls. The usual articles are out blaming racism, and there are, no doubt, some cross burners out there. But if racism is the cause of the slump, how does one account for Obama's earlier surge to the pinnacle of rock stardom? Did Americans not realize that he's black? Have the flat-screen TVs had tint problems? As my old teacher, Johnny Carson, used to say, I did not know that.
Obama is declining because he's run a terrible campaign - arrogant, aloof, and free of thought. And John McCain has come alive, the reassuring presence of the grandfather you look to when wisdom is needed. McCain hasn't made the sale any more than Obama has, but he's looking better and better to an America that's just watched Russian tanks on the move, and just saw the Democratic congress adjourn without accomplishing much of anything. The price of gas at the pump doesn't bother a party whose base thinks the internal combustion engine is a fascist plot.
So what will Obama do? He must choose a vice president, but not one name being mentioned, except Clinton, will arouse the faithful. He must deliver an acceptance speech, but his speeches have become familiar and tiresome. He must run a convention, but the list of speakers may remind voters that the party of Roosevelt and Truman died in 1968. No one under 60 recalls it.
At the end of the convention, Obama is likely to be the same person he is today. The agent of change will run a conventional campaign, try moving to the center, pull a few Chicago tricks, hint at a racial backlash if he's defeated, and may squeeze it out come November. But he's not the man America thought he was, whereas McCain, with all his faults, is exactly the man America thought he was. We can hope that Americans will choose the real McCain.
August 21, 2008. Permalink
OBAMA AND THE KIDS
Posted at 7:07 a.m. ET
Aside from the African-American community, youth has been the gold standard of the Obama campaign ...until now.
Guy Benson, at National Review Online, reports that there's a bit of bother in this part of the Obama crusade as well:
A few weeks ago, I noted a shift in polling data indicating that Barack Obama's stranglehold on the so-called "youth vote" was weakening. A Reuters summary of the latest Orgy poll confirms the trend:
"Obama's support among voters between the ages of 18 and 29, which had been one of his strengths, slipped 12 percentage points to 52 percent. McCain, who will turn 72 next week, was winning 40 percent of younger voters."
Anecdotally, I can attest that several of my friends — fellow twenty-somethings — who were once quite enthusiastic about Obama have recently expressed disappointment in his campaign. "I'm so sick of reading headlines like 'Obama Slams McCain,' or vice versa," one told me. "I thought that this campaign would actually be different, but it's not. It's depressing."
The more Obama wades into the mud, the less transcendent he appears, and his Unity/Hope/Change message is exposed for the vacuous nonsense that it is. This data should be worrisome for Team Obama because their ultimate base is slipping away.
Kids. You just can't depend on them. What are they trying to do, think for themselves?
August 21, 2008. Permalink
PETRAEUS
Posted at 7:06 a.m. ET
The sense of frustration in some some elements of the media is obvious, but the fact is that we're winning in Iraq. Even The New York Times has acknowledged that. The shrinks may now have to decide how to treat the depression among left-leaning journalists. It's part of the risk, I guess, of entering a trade where things don't always go the way the government professors at Berkeley thought they would. But facts have a way of getting out. The Times, in a good reporting job, interviewed one of the great Americans of our time, General David Petraeus, and got this accounting of where we are:
General Petraeus is preparing to leave Iraq a remarkably safer place than it was when he arrived. Violence has plummeted from its apocalyptic peaks, Iraqi leaders are asserting themselves, and streets that once seemed dead are flourishing with life. The worst, for now, has been averted.
Will the reporter go to journalistic purgatory for writing that?
And so in the general’s exhaustion comes the glimmer of hope, and also a caveat: Iraq has indeed stepped back from self-destruction, General Petraeus said, but the gains are tenuous and unlikely to survive without an American effort that outlasts his tenure.
Memo to Senator Obama: You copy that?
The surge, clearly, has worked, at least for now: violence, measured in the number of attacks against Americans and Iraqis each week, has dropped by 80 percent in the country since early 2007, according to figures the general provided. Civilian deaths, which peaked at more than 100 a day in late 2006, have also plunged. Car and suicide bombings, which stoked sectarian violence, have fallen from a total of 130 in March 2007 to fewer than 40 last month. In July, fewer Americans were killed in Iraq — 13 — than in any month since the war began.
The result, now visible in the streets, is a calm unlike any the country has seen since the American invasion toppled Saddam Hussein in April 2003. The signs — Iraqi families flooding into parks at sundown, merchants throwing open long-shuttered shops — are stunning to anyone who witnessed the country’s implosion in 2005 and 2006.
The reporter should be commended for being honest about it. I wish we'd had that forthrightness during Vietnam, where the press got away with outrageous misreporting.
The question of America’s continued commitment is likely to be taken up immediately by the new president, whoever he is, when he moves into the White House in January. General Petraeus suggested he had some details in mind, but did not think them appropriate to discuss publicly. “I can,” he said, “but I won’t.”
“The only statement I think somebody in a position like this can responsibly make is that it obviously depends on the conditions and how much risk one is willing to take,” General Petraeus said, referring to the next president.
Wise man. I suspect President McCain will listen to him. President Obama has already hinted that he has larger concepts in mind, and may not. Mr. Obama's military thoughts are very deep.
General Petraeus will now lead Central Command, responsible for Afghanistan as well as Iraq. He has done a remarkable job. Where is the parade?
August 21, 2008. Permalink
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 20, 2008
UPDATE: A CBS News/NY Times poll just released also confirms the trend we've been reporting today. The figures are identical to the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll we discuss in the next story, Obama's lead has been cut in half, and the race is now 45-42 Obama. This is among registered voters. McCain generally does better among likely voters, so the race may even be closer.
NEW POLL - GRIM FOR BARACK
Posted at 7:53 p.m. ET
A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll just released confirms the national trend - Obama is in trouble.
Obama's lead has been cut in half since the last time the poll was taken:
Overall, Obama holds a three-point lead over McCain, 45-42 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. That’s down from Obama’s six-point advantage last month, 47-41 percent.
And an analysis:
“Whatever momentum that Obama took into the summer, he really appears to have lost it,” says Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. “It is not a dead heat, but it is close.”
The Democratic convention - Obama's party - is five days away. Some gift suggestions: Bring him some modesty. Bring him a vice president who can be president. Bring him a sense of respect for the people of his own country. These gifts are inexpensive, but may be hard to obtain.
Let the combat begin.
Isn't this fun?
August 20, 2008. Permalink
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Posted at 6:20 p.m. ET
New Hampshire has been edging Democratic in recent years, and it may still go to Obama in this election. However, the political trends in the state are a good example of what seems to be happening nationally to Obama. Scott Rasmussen reports his findings, as of today:
The presidential race in New Hampshire is now a toss-up. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds that Barack Obama's once-double-digit lead over John McCain is down to a statistically insignificant one-point lead, 43% to 42%.
When “leaners” are factored in, Obama is ahead 47% to 46%.
The details:
The Democrat’s support has steadily decreased in the Granite State since he clinched the nomination in early June. Obama fell from an 11-percentage point lead in mid-June to a six-point lead in July. The latest numbers mark the closest the race has been so far this year.
The latest numbers show support growing for McCain from those in his party. He now earns the vote from 87% of GOP voters, up from 78% a month ago. Though Obama still has a 42% to 34% lead among unaffiliated voters, support for the Democrat is down from 50% last month. He also has a 46% to 38% lead among women. Among men in New Hampshire, McCain has a 46% to 40% edge.
While Obama has a solid lead among younger voters, the race is close among voters between the ages of 30 and 64. McCain has a dominant lead among voters age 65 and older.
Things are going in the right direction, but the work ahead will be hard and frustrating. Obama is surrounded by shrewd political operatives, and he's started to fight back. The media will help him. Don't be shocked if there's an October surprise that helps Obama - some last-minute "revelation" about McCain that won't be disproved until after the election. And don't be shocked on election day if there are big-city precincts in crucial states where more people vote than live in the precincts. There are areas in the nation that honor the wisdom of the dearly departed by permitting them to vote. Why not? They've had so much experience.
A fight ahead.
August 20, 2008. Permalink
TRACKERS
Posted at 1:21 p.m. ET
Both trackers are now in. As reported earlier at SNIPPETS, Rasmussen has Obama up by one. He was up by two yesterday.
Gallup has Obama up two. He was up one yesterday.
So the trackers are a wash.
The headline today is a Reuters/Zogby poll showing McCain up by five. As of now, that's an outlier. The key point in that survey is that the same poll showed Obama up seven in July.
I think that most pros will see this as a dead even race, not where Obama wanted to be.
August 20, 2008. Permalink
POLL STUNNER - JUST IN!
Posted at 8:09 a.m. ET
A new Reuters/Zogby poll released this morning shows John McCain with a five-point lead over Barack Obama.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.
McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.
We'll have to wait to see if this result is duplicated, or almost duplicated, by the other pollsters. But coming a few days before Democrats start arriving in Denver, it won't boost morale...except possibly among those delegates who want to force Hillary onto the ticket.
August 20, 2008. Permalink
TALK
Posted at 7:34 a.m. ET
NATO, or, as we used to call it, No Action Talk Only, did more talking yesterday. The subject was Georgia. The Wall Street Journal is disappointed:
"Empty words." That's how Moscow glibly dismissed NATO's criticism yesterday of Russia's continued occupation of Georgia. The Russians may be bullies, but like all bullies they know weakness when they see it.
The most NATO ministers could muster at their meeting in Brussels was a statement that they "cannot continue with business as usual" with Russia. There was no move to fast-track Georgia's bid to join NATO, nor a pledge to help the battered democracy rebuild its defenses.
And...
NATO leaders also failed to mention Ukraine, another applicant for NATO membership that has angered Moscow in recent years and could become its next target. Also missing was any indication that the alliance would begin making long-delayed plans for defending the Baltic member states and other countries on its eastern flank in case of attack.
And...
One of Moscow's goals is clearly to humiliate Georgia enough to topple President Mikheil Saakashvili, so he can be replaced with a pliable leader who will "Finlandize" the country, to borrow the old Cold War term for acquiescing to Kremlin wishes. In the bargain, it is also betting it can humiliate the West, which will give the people of Ukraine real doubts about whether joining NATO is worth the risk of angering Moscow. Judging by NATO's demoralizing response on Tuesday, the Kremlin is right.
The Georgia crisis is the most serious West/Moscow confrontation since the end of the Cold War. It occurs at the weakest moment in the Bush administration's tenure. The fact is that our options are limited. There is no beating of drums for major action on the part of the West.
But the crisis has had one positive effect: It has forced Americans to look at the presidential candidates as potential commanders-in-chief. I hope voters will see that one is qualified to lead the nation through a crisis like this, and one is not. If Georgia tilts our country toward Senator McCain, the Russian invasion of that oppressed democracy may turn out to be a major Kremlin blunder, placing a man in the White House who has studied Russian intentions for years, and understands them. There can be no joy in Moscow over that prospect.
August 20, 2008. Permalink
THE CHOICE
Posted at 6:59 a.m. ET
I find all this fever-pitch speculation about the vice presidential choices rather amusing. Many years ago the choice of the vice president was an afterthought - as long as the candidate was breathing, he was an okay choice. Now a theatrical drama is put on for television and the press. In reality, vice presidential choices rarely turn out to mean much during the election season. People vote for the top of the ticket, not the August second-stringer. The last time a vice-presidential choice was truly important was, of course, 1960, when Kennedy's choice of Lyndon Johnson, a choice deeply resented by northern liberals, brought him Texas, and the presidency.
We're told that Obama will campaign with "the choice" on Saturday. Now, either the choice has been or has not been told. If he or she has been told, word would probably have leaked out already. Staffs have to be prepared, travel arrangements made, talking points coordinated so the choice doesn't make a fool of himself or herself on the first day out. Of course, if the choice is a real pro, and already has a campaign organization ready to roll, and can keep that secret... Hmm.
Or, the candidate has not been told, and will learn along with the rest of us. That's quite a jolt for someone who has to be ready to launch a national campaign within 24 or 48 hours. Unless the choice is experienced at... Hmm.
You know where I'm going. There's only one candidate who can spring immediately into action, and knows the territory, and can take the scrutiny of the TV cameras on the very first day.
But will Obama accept Hillary Clinton? Will Michelle Obama accept Hillary Clinton? Will Hillary have to leave Bill at home? Send him to Dubai on a two-month business trip?
This is pure speculation. I don't predict here. I really think the odds are way against it. I don't think, frankly, that Obama could stand the competition. But he's languishing in the polls, and he may have to make a Kennedyesque decision to unite the party and pull off a spectacular.
We'll know in a few days. Remember, you heard nothing here first.
August 20, 2008. Permalink
"What you see is news. What you know is background. What you feel is opinion."
- Lester Markel, late Sunday editor
of The New York Times.
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